GLOBAL INDUSTRY

The science says we need to keep fossil fuels in the ground to meet climate goals. We’re pushing back against industry spin saying otherwise.

OVERVIEW OF WORK

The oil and gas industry is on a public relations campaign to convince investors, financial regulators, and the public at large that they deserve continued support as “part of the solution” to the energy transition. Oil Change is working to challenge these narratives and provide analysis to the financial sector, movement allies, and other decision makers to support a shift away from fossil fuel finance. Further, we are working to reform international energy scenarios that currently guide investment decisions towards failure in meeting the Paris Agreement climate goals and, concurrently, are used by the oil and gas industry to justify dangerous expansion plans.

Following years of campaigning and pressure by Oil Change and others, in 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its first ever fully fledged energy scenario aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5ºC. Critically, the IEA concluded that: “There is no need for investment in new fossil fuel supply in our net zero pathway,” and, therefore, “there are no new oil and gas fields approved for development in our pathway.” We are using the IEA’s conclusion that 1.5ºC alignment means no new oil and gas fields to hold governments, companies, banks, and investors accountable to backing up ‘net zero’ commitments with an end to new oil and gas finance.

LATEST PROGRAM POSTS

On Monday, we welcomed the first step by the International Energy Agency towards describing how energy would look for the world to meet one of the Paris Agreement goals, to keep warming well below 2°C. Specifically, it looked at emissions being limited enough to give a 2-in-3 chance of staying below 2°C. The report was co-published by IEA and its clean energy counterpart IRENA and commissioned by the German government. The two agencies are also working on a 1.5°C scenario, to be published in June.

But there’s a problem with the IEA’s new climate scenario: it describes a slower decline in fossil

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LATEST PROGRAM RESEARCH

This briefing gives financial institutions an overview of the IEA's first 1.5°C-aligned scenario and what it means for oil and gas. We show that the IEA's conclusion about ending new oil and gas field development is not a product of scenario design; it’s the arithmetic of 1.5°C.

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