The science says we need to keep fossil fuels in the ground to meet climate goals. We’re pushing back against industry spin saying otherwise.
OVERVIEW OF WORK
The oil and gas industry is on a public relations campaign to convince investors, financial regulators, and the public at large that they deserve continued support as “part of the solution” to the energy transition. Oil Change is working to challenge these narratives and provide analysis to the financial sector, movement allies, and other decision makers to support a shift away from fossil fuel finance. Further, we are working to reform international energy scenarios that currently guide investment decisions towards failure in meeting the Paris Agreement climate goals and, concurrently, are used by the oil and gas industry to justify dangerous expansion plans.
Following years of campaigning and pressure by Oil Change and others, in 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its first ever fully fledged energy scenario aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5ºC. Critically, the IEA concluded that: “There is no need for investment in new fossil fuel supply in our net zero pathway,” and, therefore, “there are no new oil and gas fields approved for development in our pathway.” We are using the IEA’s conclusion that 1.5ºC alignment means no new oil and gas fields to hold governments, companies, banks, and investors accountable to backing up ‘net zero’ commitments with an end to new oil and gas finance.
LATEST PROGRAM POSTS
For IEA scenario reform, the devil is in the details. The IEA must develop a 1.5°C scenario that is aligned with the goals of the Paris climate agreement and address the concerns of key WEO users. Anything less would be easy to discount as greenwashing or another example of the pro-fossil fuel bias at the IEA.
When it comes to making decisions on expensive and complex energy infrastructure, investors, governments, and companies look decades into the future. Unfortunately for action on climate change, the IEA's World Energy Outlook has a strong status quo bias.
Last week, some 50 leading scientists, NGOs, investors, politicians and energy experts wrote to the International Energy Agency (IEA) to criticise the world’s top energy body for not aligning its energy forecasts with the latest climate science.
Today, over 40 business leaders, investors, and energy experts found remarkable alignment around demanding more from the IEA. In a letter covered by the Financial Times, a broad collection of signatories called on the IEA to develop a truly Paris-aligned scenario.
LATEST PROGRAM RESEARCH
Despite an array of new ‘net zero’ pledges released in the past two years, the climate promises of major U.S. and European oil and gas companies still fail to meet the bare minimum for alignment with the Paris Agreement, according to a new study.
This briefing gives financial institutions an overview of the IEA's first 1.5°C-aligned scenario and what it means for oil and gas. We show that the IEA's conclusion about ending new oil and gas field development is not a product of scenario design; it’s the arithmetic of 1.5°C.
The IEA has a crucial opportunity in 2021 to guide the world towards 1.5°C-aligned energy investment. We outline crucial steps the IEA must take to get on track.