Paris, France – Today, the International Energy Agency’s 2023 Net Zero Roadmap report reaffirms that world leaders must not develop new oil, gas, or coal beyond existing fields – and some existing fields and infrastructure will need to be closed early – to remain within the internationally agreed upon temperature limit.
The updated Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario charts a path to meet the international goals to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) and recognizes the need to fundamentally shift away from fossil fuels to maintain a livable planet.
The IEA – originally founded to protect wealthy nations’ access to oil – has repeatedly confirmed that no new oil, gas, or coal fields are compatible with limiting global temperature rise to 1.5ºC, and yet countries around the world continue to approve new fossil fuel fields and infrastructure. In fact, Oil Change International’s latest research shows that even beyond stopping oil and gas expansion, 60% of fossil fuels in existing fields must stay in the ground to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C.
The 2023 NZE scenario includes an increasingly fast phase-out of fossil gas, which governments should heed as a wake-up call. Gas production and use declines 5% per year on average from 2022 through 2050, for a total decline of nearly 80% over that period. Compared to its 2021 scenario, the IEA has cut its projection for fossil gas demand in 2050 by almost half. This reflects the reality that renewable energy and electrification solutions are scaling up faster and are more cost-effective than industry-favored techno-fixes designed to prolong fossil gas use, such as “blue hydrogen” (hydrogen produced by gas) and carbon capture and storage.
Reflecting on the poor track record of carbon capture and storage (CCS), the 2023 NZE scenario relies on less use of CCS than ever before. The IEA acknowledges that the history of CCS “has largely been one of unmet expectations.” The roadmap reduces its projections for CCS deployment in 2030 by around 40% compared to the original NZE scenario.
While fossil fuel companies actively promote CCS, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ranks CCS as the lowest potential, highest cost mitigation option in the short-term, and CCS has delivered minimal real-world mitigation to date. Additionally, CCS projects would bring new health and safety risks to communities already overburdened by fossil fuel industry pollution.
The most equitable way forward towards a renewable energy future is a fast, fair, and funded phase-out of fossil fuels.
Kelly Trout, Research Director, Oil Change International, said:
“This report reaffirms a stark truth: To limit global temperature rise as agreed upon internationally, there’s no room for new oil, gas, or coal fields. The time for a swift, equitable, and fully funded phase-out of fossil fuels is now, with rich countries moving first and fastest and paying their fair share to finance a global just transition. As countries prepare to make serious climate commitments at COP28, they must take into account the unequivocal evidence that the shift away from fossil fuels must happen, and it must happen fast.”
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I am happy that the world in general, is waking up to the awful predicament we are facing with regard to the environment. God gave us a Pristine Planet, and the human element has polluted this planet beyond what is reasonable. It is now our responsibility to correct this dilemma, by reversing what we have all allowed to happen for more than ten decades. We have the technology and the capacity to do so. All we have been lacking is the will to stand up for our right to clean Air, Water and Land to grow our sustenance. The major Governments of this world are in part, also responsible for where we now find ourselves. They all were part and parcel of the continuing pollution and degrading of our Planet, for the sake of excessive profits for the few, at the expense of the many. If we continue to let our respective Government prosper for the rich, at the expense of the masses, then we too are part and parcel of the very same problem. Time to wake up. Time to fight for the future of Mother Earth, our children, grandchildren and in my case, great grandchildren.
IEA: “large quantities of low- emissions fuels; technologies to capture CO2 from smokestacks and the atmosphere; more nuclear power; and large land areas for renewables.”
“Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels, and sustainable bioenergy are critical to achieve net zero emissions; rapid progress is needed by 2030. The history of CCUS has largely been one of underperformance. Although the recent surge of announced projects for CCUS and hydrogen is encouraging, the majority have yet to reach final investment decision and need further policy support to boost demand and facilitate new enabling infrastructure.”
https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-roadmap-a-global-pathway-to-keep-the-15-0c-goal-in-reach/executive-summary