ENERGY TRANSITIONS & FUTURES
Our Energy Transitions and Futures program leads strategic campaigns and produces cutting-edge analysis to advance the energy transformation we need to meet global climate goals. Our focus and expertise is on the supply side – where oil, gas, and coal companies are digging fossil fuels out of the ground.
Our groundbreaking Sky’s Limit report found that existing oil and gas fields and coal mines around the world already contain enough fossil fuels to push us far beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. That’s the problem.
The solution is for governments and institutions to manage a rapid and equitable decline of fossil fuel production. We can chart a transition to clean, renewable energy that prevents climate breakdown and guarantees a bright future for workers and communities currently on the frontlines of extraction – but we have no time to waste.
OVERVIEW OF WORK
In 2016, Oil Change International released a groundbreaking report that put the urgency of winding down fossil fuel production in sharper focus than ever before. We found that already-producing oilfields, gasfields, and coal mines – where the infrastructure is already built and the capital invested – hold enough carbon to take the world well beyond 1.5°C of warming and up to 2°C. This makes two things very clear:
- The amount of fossil fuel in production is too much already – any expansion is incompatible with meeting the climate goals set in the Paris Agreement; and
- Governments must begin a just and equitable managed decline of existing fossil fuel projects – with wealthy nations in the lead – to limit warming to 1.5°C and prevent the worst climate devastation.
Our Energy Transitions and Futures program is supporting movements and pushing international and national leaders to respond to this challenge head on, and commit to the rapid and just transition off of fossil fuels that our climate goals demand.
Momentum is growing. Since August 2017, more than 500 civil society organizations across 76 countries have signed the Lofoten Declaration, calling on wealthy fossil fuel producers to lead in managing the decline of fossil fuel production.
A growing group of countries, including New Zealand, France, Belize, and Costa Rica, have begun putting limits on fossil fuel development. We’ve produced reports making the case for why Norway, Canada, California, and Germany have a responsibility to join this club of First Movers. And we’re working with influential think tanks, investors, scientists, and policymakers around the world to ensure our leaders have the tools they need to make informed energy decisions – and plan for success in meeting our climate goals.
LATEST PROGRAM POSTS
On Thursday, September 16th, Ministers from Denmark and Costa Rica will announce they will form the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA). BOGA is a diplomatic initiative bringing together countries and jurisdictions that have ended licensing for new oil and gas exploration and production and are setting an end date for their production.
Twelve of the largest central banks around the globe continue to support climate chaos-causing fossil fuels through policy and direct finance, a new report released today finds. Ahead of an annual convening of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming later this week, the analysis strikes a critical contrast to promises in recent months by the same central banks to align their operations with climate goals.
The Biden White House released a statement from National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan urging OPEC to increase oil production; Oil Change International experts responded.
New research, published in Nature Climate Change, has found “an almost complete loss of stability over the last century” of the ocean currents known as AMOC or more commonly the Gulf Stream. The currents are already at their slowest point for 1,600 years. But scientists worry that AMOC could be reaching a tipping point, leading to a total collapse.
LATEST PROGRAM RESEARCH
The IEA has a crucial opportunity in 2021 to guide the world towards 1.5°C-aligned energy investment. We outline crucial steps the IEA must take to get on track.
This briefing provides a technical analysis of how the International Energy Agency's (IEA) 2019 World Energy Outlook (WEO) continues to steer governments and investors off track in tackling the climate crisis.
The latest climate science and rapidly changing energy markets indicate the need to rapidly shift away from fossil gas, yet the IEA mistakenly presents gas as compatible with a decarbonized future. This policy brief brings together the latest energy market research with the need for reform of the World Energy Outlook.