Category: Reports

Forecasting Failure: Why Investors Should Treat Oil Company Energy Forecasts With Caution

Oil Change International, Greenpeace

March 2017

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Companies like ExxonMobil, Shell and BP routinely use their in-house energy forecasts to justify investments in multi-decade, high-cost projects, from the Arctic to the tar sands. While the companies present their published forecasts as objective analyses, the forecasts rather reflect the future they want us to believe in.

This report:

reveals the poor track record of oil company forecasting;
exposes the unlikely assumptions built into the forecasts; and
examines the consequences of these forecasts for investments and for climate change.

It finds that the companies are highly

Climate on the Line: Why new tar sands pipelines are incompatible with the Paris goals

January 2017

Oil Change International

Download the report here.

New analysis finds that Canada will be the world’s second highest contributor of new oil production globally over the next twenty years if action isn’t taken to halt new tar sands pipelines and production growth. Once extracted, much of this oil will be burned, pushing global temperature limits over the brink.

Cumulative emissions from producing and burning Canadian oil would use up 16% of the world’s carbon budget to keep temperatures below 1.5 degrees, or 7% of the budget for 2

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