The end of growth in the tar sands? Oil Change International is poised to release a groundbreaking new model of the North American tar sands pipeline system.

In the coming weeks, Oil Change International will publish a report based on our new Integrated North American Pipeline model (INAP). INAP will be the first publically accessible model to map and analyze the complex routes, bottlenecks, and hurdles that stand in the way of burgeoning tar sands expansion.

The report, Lock Down: The end of growth in the tar sands, is currently being peer reviewed and the conclusions confirmed. But we wanted to give you a heads up. The model will show the extent to which campaigns to stop infrastructure expansion such as pipelines are keeping carbon in the ground. The report will go into depth on all tar sands pipeline expansions, including incremental expansion to existing pipelines.

In addition to the four major pipeline proposals that have all been delayed by mounting opposition – Keystone XL, TransMountain Expansion, Energy East and Northern Gateway – the report will also reveal the importance of other smaller scale expansion efforts, as well as the role of rail. It will show at what production levels industry stops being profitable in the absence of new export infrastructure – beyond which any new tar sands production is unlikely.

The model itself has been tested against historical data and is then used to project forward to 2020 and 2030.

If you would like an embargoed copy of the report before its release, please request one from Hannah (hannah [at] priceofoil [dot] org).

Campaigns to stop production at the source are critical, as we point out here. We are very excited to be able to add this model and report in support of the growing movement to end growth in one of the highest carbon sectors on the continent!