Russian oil production has dropped this year for the first time in a decade, adding to the already jittery oil market, with some industry insiders saying it has already “peaked”.

Russia, the world’s biggest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, averaged 10 million barrels per day from January through March, the International Energy Agency said in a recent report. That marked a 1 percent drop compared with 2007 and the first time production has failed to exceed previous-year figures since 1998.

Russian officials have acknowledged that supply growth appears to have hit a ceiling, at least for now.

The Energy Ministry called the drop a “stagnation” last week, and Leonid Fedun, vice president of independent producer Lukoil, said that supply had peaked. “The period of intense oil production is over,” Fedun said.

If Russian oil really has peaked, this could spell big problems for the EU…