The favorite topic du jour in DC these days is the price of gas – and this being DC – the blame game around it. The right talks about the lack of supply – and says the solution lies in relaxing green refinery rules and opening up ANWR. The left blames corporate profiteering and Bush administration opposition to demand reduction. Both sides talk about peak oil in hushed tones.

Nobody is talking about the war.
According to Daniel Yergin’s industry funded Cambridge Energy Research Associates there is a “slow motion supply shock” causing an “aggregate disruption” in the global oil market.
They break it down as:

  • Iraq – 900,000 bd below prewar levels
  • Nigeria – 530,000 bd shut-in by insurgents
  • Venezuela – 400,000 bd below pre-2002-2003 strike levels
  • U.S. Gulf of Mexico – 330,000 bd less than before Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Thats 41% due to Iraq, for those keeping score.

CERA is about as establishment as energy analysts get. Time to connect the dots. If you’re reading this in NYC on Saturday morning, get out on the street!