Slowly but surely, the fracking revolution spreads. Just take a look at some headlines in the Financial Times over the last six weeks or so: “Japan wakes up to US shale revolution”; “Mexico awaits its own shale revolution”.
And now it is Russia’s turn.
Yesterday the paper reported that âRussia is gearing up for an oil boom on the same scale as the USâ. By all accounts the vast oilfields of Siberia also contain vast deposits of unconventional oil.
Leonid Fedun, the vice-president of Lukoil, told the FT that Russia would be able to maintain crude output at around 10 million barrels a day for years to come.
Much will depend on a field called âRed Leninâ or Krasnoleninskoye in Russian, which is being exploited by TNK-BP and Gazprom Neft and Royal Dutch Shell. They are soon to be joined by Rosneft and ExxonMobil .
Red Lenin is part of western Siberiaâs vast Bazhenov Shale field (see image for map of Russian’s oil basins), which the Russians hope is bigger to Americaâs Bakken, which is now responsible for 10 per cent of Americaâs oil production. Indeed Bazhenov could make the Bakken look like a minnow.
According to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, Bazhenov could hold 2 trillion barrels of oil in place, which is five times greater than the Bakkenâs in-place number.
The problem for the industry is that no one knows how much of this is recoverable and the complex geology makes guessing even more difficult.
But in order to encourage investment the Russian government is proposing a 100 per cent waiver of mineral extraction tax from the region. But even if the companies prepare to drill, it won’t replicate the US just yet. As Guy Chazan reports in the FT âWhatever happens, it will take years for Russia to experience a shale boom on anything like the scale of the US.â
As Russia gears up for its own fracking revolution, Poland is set to effectively outlaw anti-fracking dissent. The Polish government is proposing new legislation which campaigners argue would âeffectively eliminate the possibility of organised opposition.â This is happening in a country where campaigners say they are already operating in a âclimate of fearâ.
Under new laws being proposed, groups will only be able to participate in the legal debate over fracking if they have been in existence for over 12 months.
According to an article in Natural Gas Europe: âThis will mean that community groups and organisations which have only just formedâ in response to the governmentâs new âfrackingâ plans âwill be unable to participate in decision making processes that directly affect them.â
Lucy Patterson from campaigning network Push Europe argues. âIt completely undermines the right of Polish people to voice concerns about issue as potentially socially disruptive and environmentally devastating as fracking âŠhow can we expect progress to be made in a country that puts the fossil industryâs corporate profits before the rights of its own people?â
It also makes you think that the oil companies will relish working in Siberia. It may be cold and remote, but that also means there will be little protests and outside scrutiny of their operations.
While it is true that new groups would be somewhat disenfranchised it would help stop Russian domination of Europe by limiting their manipulation of political groups from Moscow. Kill the Russian Bear!!!